Welcome to the wild, wild west of admissions and financial aid.

You might like it, but you might not.

Recently, the National Association of College Admission Counseling (NACAC) was forced by the Justice Department to allow more competition in their admissions practices--an outcome that stemmed from the settlement of the DOJ’s antitrust lawsuit against the college admissions membership organization. 

This change means that starting in the spring of 2020, as college applicants receive their acceptance and financial aid award letters, they also might receive some surprises--some that are welcome, some that are confusing, and some that are undesirable. 

Under the new practices, for example, a student might receive a text that says, “You have been selected to receive an extra $3,000 per year in scholarship money if you send us your admissions deposit by December 15,” or an email that says, “If you are accepted early-decision to our fine college, you will be guaranteed your first- or second-choice dorm room.” 

More competition is generally considered a positive thing, but the results aren’t always what they’re intended to be. 

In the case of the new NACAC practices, many parents and students may be caught off-guard. While the extra money or guarantee of the desired choice may seem like a good thing, the pressure for an immediate decision may not be. Families may feel unprepared to make the quick choices they could be asked to make.

I am taking a “wait-and-see” attitude toward these changes. It will be interesting to see what effect the changes have on admissions outcomes for the students I am working with this spring. My initial thought is that the college admissions process is stressful enough without being asked to make a binding decision under pressure before you even have all of the facts from each of the colleges you applied to. 

Will you be accepted at all of those colleges? Is the one you received the binding offer from your first choice? Is it the best offer? Will college Y will offer the same financial aid or other perks as college X? Maybe they won’t--but how can you know? The only way to find out is to call each school and ask. It seems a little bit like college enrollment as used-car sales, but, I have to admit that, if Car A and Car B are similar, I might purchase Car B if they made me an offer for $2000 less.

State flagship universities and selective colleges will not send out these emails. They won’t need to in order to guarantee their enrollment numbers. Small, private colleges and universities that are tuition-driven (meaning that most of their operating budget comes from tuition and not from large endowments funded by wealthy donors) will be trying out this new method of “locking in” students.

Across the country, college enrollment has dropped by about 11% over the past eight years, a decrease that’s due in part to low unemployment and in part to shifting demographics. According to National Public Radio, “the number of high school graduates is flat--and in some cases declining--because of low birth rates about 20 years ago. Those numbers are also projected to decline, so the trend of fewer students coming from high school isn’t going away anytime soon.” Declining enrollment means fiercer competition for the shrinking pool of qualified students. 

In some cases, non-selective, tuition-driven, colleges are already struggling to attract enough students. Forecasted enrollment trends mean these schools will continue to struggle; some may be forced to close. For a small college with typical freshman enrollment of 500, a decline of 20 students can cause budgets to shrink, which can lead to personnel layoffs or the delay of needed classroom or dorm repairs.  

I think that most Americans feel that real relief for the burdensome cost of higher education is needed--even families who can afford to pay cash for selective colleges are feeling pinched. While the new NACAC rules may help colleges address their financial pressures, I’m not sure whether they are are going to help relieve the financial pressure for students.

For more information on the new NACAC rules, see The New York Times: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/21/us/politics/colleges-early-admission.html